Up the backstretch: Turf horse took to Golden Gate's artificial track

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/21/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A 3-year-old colt that had never won a race except on the grass came away Saturday with a key victory on a synthetic surface. The change in surfaces for Daddy Nose Best proved to be beneficial for him to win the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields.

Owned by Bob Zollars and trained by Steve Asmussen, Daddy Nose Best was making just his third start on a main track and his first on a synthetic surface. His two career wins before Saturday were both on turf courses.

Daddy Nose Best was again ridden by Julien Leparoux in the El Camino Real a partnership that produced two wins, a second and a third in six starts on grass.

Asmussen didn't make the trip to Golden Gate Fields, giving the assignment to assistant trainer Darren Fleming,

"We came here because of the added distance and his experience on turf which carries over to synthetic," Fleming said. "Winning (the El Camino Real Derby) last year with Silver Medallion helped our decision. He's been getting better with time, and he's trained with a different mindset since his last race. He's been showing us he wanted more ground, so we've had to wait for the races to catch up to him."

The 1 1/8 miles of the El Camino Real was just the right distance for the colt, which was able to stick his nose on the wire inches ahead of 5-2 second pick Lucky Chappy.

"I didn't know if I won or not," said Leparoux, who came in special for the race. "It was too close to call. It was nice to see the horse fight back."

Daddy Nose Best was no stranger to stakes races. He was third last year in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine and sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Churchill Downs. After winning a turf allowance in late November at Churchill Downs, he was fifth in the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita on New Year's Eve.

The colt's next start is still undecided as apparently Zollars, Asmussen and Fleming will put their heads together and come up with a plan.

"He came out of the race really good," Fleming said Sunday. "It was a great race. Steve and Bob will get together and discuss his next race."

An added benefit to winning the graded race is the $120,000 that Daddy Nose Best gains if his connections are thinking of running in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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